Hong Kong remains on track to achieve 3% export growth this year, despite the ongoing turbulence buffeting global trade, according to the latest forecasts from the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC).
HKTDC’s latest assessment follows an earlier projection for 3% export growth made in March, when the prospect of US tariffs was starting to stoke up trade tensions.
Looking back, Hong Kong’s outbound trade remained relatively buoyant during the early part of 2025, as exporters frontloaded orders to pre-empt proposed US tariffs.
While this momentum is likely to slow in the second part of the year, HKTDC is retaining its earlier forecast.
This is mainly due to a reduced reliance on US deliveries alongside firmer trading relationships with other markets, supported by moves by exporters to diversify their sourcing.
The broader outlook for global trade is still clouded by uncertainty, undermining consumer and business confidence.
While Mainland China and the US – the world’s two largest economies – have reached a mutual trade framework after meeting for talks in London, details have yet to be confirmed. The two sides had previously agreed on 12 May to pause their respective tariff regimes for 90 days.
Nonetheless, HKTDC’s latest market review suggests that Hong Kong is in a good position to meet the challenges that lie ahead, as exporters contend with adverse and unpredictable trading conditions.
Encouragingly, Hong Kong’s total exports have risen by 17.2% since 2017 – the year President Trump’s first term began – even though exports to the US fell by 10.5% over the same period. In 2024, US-bound shipments accounted for just 6.5% of Hong Kong’s total exports.
The last eight years also saw notable export growth to key markets, including ASEAN (+38.5%) and the Middle East (+58.1%).
At the same time, many of Hong Kong’s US-bound exports are now sourced from different locations. Almost half of the city’s US-bound exports originated from a variety of international sources in 2024, compared with 15% eight years ago.
HKTDC’s 2025 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook can be read in full here.
“Whatever the outcome of the ongoing trade negotiations, our low exposure to the US market, robust trade ties with other markets and diversified sourcing networks are the key underlying factors that should allow Hong Kong exporters to weather the US tariffs relatively unscathed,” commented Irina Fan, HKTDC Director of Research.
Uncertainty and positivity
Meanwhile, in line with overall expectations that Hong Kong’s export performance will moderate later in the second half of 2025, the overall reading for the most recent HKTDC Export Confidence Index fell below 50 for the first time in a year.
The latest round of this quarterly survey was conducted between 28 April to 15 May, at a time when the China-US trade war was especially acute.
The 2Q25 Index also showed that Hong Kong exporter confidence remained high regarding prospects in the ASEAN bloc, at 59.9, and Mainland China, at 52.6. The corresponding reading for the US plummeted downwards from 46.7 to 31.6.
The Current Performance Index for three of the six key Hong Kong industry sectors covered by the survey – jewellery, timepieces and equipment/materials – remained positive.
For the three other sectors, both electronics and clothing were marginally below the watershed level, while toys continued its recent decline.
The full report for the 2Q25 HKTDC Export Confidence Index is available to read here.
“Overall, the findings for the second quarter align with earlier expectations of weaker exporter confidence amid US tariff uncertainties,” remarked Kenneth Lee, Special Project and Business Advisory Section Head, HKTDC Research.
“It is, however, heartening to see Hong Kong exporters maintain a largely positive outlook with regard to all of the city’s major markets, except for the US.”
The outcome of the latest trade negations between Mainland China and the US will likely be reflected in the findings of the 3Q25 Index.
Even if high levels of US tariffs are reinstated, only about 3.4% of Hong Kong’s total exports would be affected.
Furthermore, any impact would be further diminished once products eligible for tariff exemptions are also taken into account.
